The other day Verizon submitted to the Federal Communications Commission a Femtocell gadget for inherent roll-out in 2009. This had inspired a enthralling discussion in a tech forum I partake in (BroadBand Reports aka Dsl Reports). The normal understanding was that femtocell technology will kill VoIp and Pots providers as we know them.
While you're certainly not going to see me arguing that cell phones are not the time to come - they are - but I still think it is way too soon to predict the demise of Voice over Ip - or even Pots for that matter. Sure, femtocells would introduce a new form of competition into the already over-competitive "unlimited calling" shop - but femtocells by itself will not kill anything. The "disruptive technology" element is simply not there. Sure, you'll get better capability calls on your cell phone, but it'll still be a cell phone and not a home phone. Saying that femtocells will replace the home phone (or VoIp home phone) is like saying that Hybrid cars will kill the gasoline car shop because Hybrids get better mileage and last longer. Sure- they do get better mileage, but it doesn't mean mean Joe is going to leave the Tv to look for a Hybrid anytime soon. In a decade - it Might kill the gasoline shop - but not anytime soon.
The same could be said for femtocells. Sure- it might destroy the "traditional" VoIp and Pots markets in a decade or two when 100% of users migrate to 100% cellular - but this isn't going to happen tomorrow or even in the next few years. Let's face it - citizen have been using the home phone aid for a very long time. Just because cell clubs want to push new technology doesn't mean Aunt Martha is going to give up her costly home phone with its four handsets (because we know you in effect Must have a handset in the shower too!). Cell penetration is very high among the younger generations, but don't expect mom to throw Pots out the window just yet.
Now, let's go back to the facts:
* Femtocells benefits the Carrier far more than it benefits the consumer. If your cell signal at home is good femtocells will make very microscopic disagreement in your life.
* Femtocells costs too much - at least at this point. Spring Airave for example costs 0 just to buy the device, and then you have to pay /month for the "privilege" of rescue your cell supplier money.
* For urban folks (read: who in effect uses cell phones the most), the capability revision will not be a big draw since they already get a good signal at home typically. The only real draw to the new technology is it's promise of free unlimited calls on your cell phone when home. "Free" however has it's price, namely - /month if you're single, /month if you use more than one handset in your household. Slap an additional one /month or so for Usf, taxes, and other random fees.
* At /month (assuming you have a singular phone), or /month (for the whole family) - this poses no risk at all to Voice over Ip providers. With the irregularity of Vonage, most VoIp providers offer far economy prices for what would whole to unlimited Ld calling. You can find prices as low as /month - fees included - for such services via VoIp.
* Sprint's version of "unlimited" includes the Us only, while VoIp providers typically throw in Canada for a good measure, and some go as far as including Puerto Rico and some other countries.
Ok, let's step back a bit and assess Femtocells to Pots. Aside from the fact that Pots carriers are typically the same clubs who operate your cell phone and have zero interest in competing with themselves - there are still a few things you just can't do with femtocells. Namely- ever try to send fax over VoIp? If you have, you probably know that it is a very daunting task even with the best of settings. Now let's take it a step supplementary and consider trying to fax via your cell phone. Sounds ridiculous? yep, it sure is. Fax and modem over VoIp will probably work well eventually, but I just don't see cell phone manufacturers deploying T.38 fax-ready handsets anytime soon.
The lowest line is:
* Femtocells just won't do some of the things Pots and VoIp can.
* Pricing is, well, just not enthralling enough to convince VoIp users to ditch their trusty Atas.
Femtocell is a nice utopian dream for cell companies, but the meat is just not there, and this isn't going to disrupt the shop significantly - it is not a "killer technology".
I will you all a very happy sense with your cell phone, VoIp, and Pots!
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